Cost Support Fails to Mask Weak Demand, Magnesium Market Continues in the Doldrums [SMM Magnesium Morning Meeting Minutes]

SMM Magnesium Morning Meeting Minutes for November 12:

Magnesium Raw Material

Prices

The ex-factory price, excluding tax, for 1-3 cm dolomite (Wutai) was 108 yuan/mt, flat from the previous working day; the ex-factory price, excluding tax, for 2-4 cm dolomite (Wutai) was 128 yuan/mt, flat from the previous working day; the mainstream ex-factory price for 75 ferrosilicon in Shaanxi was 5,700-5,800 yuan/mt.

Supply and Demand

Recently, Wutai dolomite prices held steady. Magnesium plants in the main production areas maintained stable production operations, with sustained release of rigid demand for dolomite providing strong support. Dolomite prices are expected to hold up well. The most-traded ferrosilicon futures contract, fer2509, closed at 5,488 on the previous working day, down 58 yuan or 1.05%. The ferrosilicon market currently shows signs of prices bottoming out and stabilizing. Cost side, prices of key raw materials such as lump coal and semi coke have increased successively, strengthening cost support for ferrosilicon and limiting further downside room for prices. However, the supply-demand imbalance has not been substantially alleviated, making it difficult to form effective upward momentum. Considering both the supply-demand pattern and cost support, ferrosilicon prices are expected to fluctuate rangebound.

Magnesium Ingot

Prices

Today, the mainstream quotation for magnesium ingots in the Fugu area was 16,100-16,200 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt from the previous working day; the Chinese FOB price was $2,260-2,370/mt.

Supply and Demand

Yesterday morning, magnesium plant offers were slightly lowered to 16,200 yuan/mt. Overall market trading activity was sluggish, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment. By the afternoon, actual transaction prices pulled back further to the range of 16,100-16,150 yuan/mt, and magnesium prices remained in the doldrums. Coupled with news of production resumptions at two magnesium plants in Shaanxi last Monday, expectations for increased supply intensified. Against the backdrop of no significant improvement in demand, supply pressure persists, and the oversupply pattern in the magnesium market is unlikely to change significantly in the short term.

Magnesium Alloy

Prices

Today, the mainstream tax-inclusive ex-factory price for magnesium alloy in China was 18,150-18,250 yuan/mt; the Chinese FOB price for magnesium alloy was $2,510-2,600/mt.

Supply and Demand

Yesterday, magnesium alloy prices were under pressure, following the trend of raw material magnesium ingot prices. From a market supply-demand perspective, the magnesium alloy market showed a structural imbalance in the short term. Production side, operating rates remained high, and the previously tight supply situation has eased moderately. However, most enterprises still operate based on order-based production schedules, with some manufacturers' schedules booked until mid-November. As upstream magnesium alloy manufacturers accelerate production, the supply shortage is expected to be effectively alleviated.

Magnesium Powder

Price

Today, the mainstream ex-factory prices, inclusive of tax, for 20-80 mesh magnesium powder in China were 17,400-17,500 yuan/mt; the FOB price in China was $2,420-2,520/mt.

Supply and Demand

The magnesium powder market recently continued its mediocre trend, exhibiting a weak supply-demand dynamic. The overall industry operating rate remained low, downstream purchasers generally adopted a wait-and-see attitude, and market trading activity was relatively low.